Sabtu, Mac 17, 2012

COMPARISON CREATES CONFIDENCE

Comparison Creates Confidence

Comparing options makes you confident in your choice.

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Published on January 3, 2012 by Art Markman, Ph.D. in Ulterior Motives

There are two broad strategies that people use to make choices.  One method is to compare the options to each other and choose the best one.  The other is to evaluate each option individually and then pick the one that is rated as the best. 

These strategies are used in different circumstances.  In his book, Sources of Power, Gary Klein suggests that experts are more likely to evaluate the options individually, while people with less expertise tend to compare the options.

One reason why comparison helps novices more than experts comes from research by Chris Hsee.  This work shows that it is easier for people to evaluate the options when they are being compared.  Imagine buying a new dictionary.  You find out that a particular dictionary has 50,000 entries in it.  Is that good or bad?  If you are a dictionary expert, the you might know whether that is a large number of entries.  Suppose, though, that you find out that another dictionary only has 25,000 entries in it.  Now, you know that 50,000 entries is a good number for a dictionary to have.

    A 2012 paper by Thomas Mussweiler and Ann-Chrstin Posten in Cognition demonstrates that when people compare options, they also get more confident in their judgments.

    To get participants in their studies in a mindset to make comparisons, they had people look at a complex picture and write down the commonalities and differences between two halves of the picture.  Other participants evaluated the picture without making comparisons.  Previous work by these researchers shows that this technique reliably gets people to make comparisons in later tasks.

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    In one study, after looking at the complex picture, participants were shown descriptions of three brands of cell phones (labeled Brands A, B, and C).  They had a chance to study the descriptions.  Later, they were shown fourteen of the features they had seen and were asked whether those features belonged to Brand B.  With each response, participants were allowed to place a bet between 0 and 10 Euros (the study was done in Germany) based on how confident they were in their response.  The higher the bet, the more confident that people were that they knew whether the feature belonged to Brand B. 

    People who were put in a mindset to make comparisons were more confident in their judgments about the features of the cell phones than people who did not make comparisons.  Despite the difference in confidence, the people who made comparisons were not more accurate in their judgments than those who did not make comparisons.

    This confidence can also affect the choices people make.  In another study, participants were shown the menu from the university cafeteria before lunch.  They were asked to select the item from the cafeteria they thought they would want to eat.  As before, some participants were put in a mindset to make comparisons while others were not.  After lunch, participants were asked what they actually ate.  Those who made comparisons ate what they predicted they would eat about 75 percent of the time, while those who did not make comparisons at what they predicted they would eat about 50% of the time.  (Because there were about 10 items on the menu, chance would be about 10%.)

    Putting all this research together, it suggests that when you don't have a lot of expertise in a domain, you need to be careful when making decisions.  On the one hand, you are quite likely to rely on comparing the options in order to make a choice.  On the other hand, those comparisons will increase your feeling of confidence in the decision.  So, you need to recognize that at least part of that confidence comes from the way the choice was made.

    38 ulasan:

    1. Harap rakyat sendiri boleh membut perbandingan sendiri dalam politik sama ada untuk memberi sokongan kepada kerajaan asal ataupun kepada pembangkang. Semuanya terletak dalam tangan sendiri.

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      Balasan
      1. Comparison between the BN government and the opposition should be made by the people before they vote in the next general elections. Only after serious consideration should they make their decisions.

        Padam
      2. The people need to really value who the best choice.

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    2. Setelah berbandingan dan Pro dan Cons dibuat, sudah tentu rakyat akan ada keputusan sendiri. Yang penting fikir dulu sebelum mengundi.

      BalasPadam
      Balasan
      1. nilailah kelebihan dan kelemahan agar dapat buat keputusan yang terbaik.

        Padam
    3. Comparison indeed creates a better perspective in achieving goal.

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    4. Perbandingan dapat memperbaiki kelemahan yang ada.

      BalasPadam
      Balasan
      1. Setiap kelemahan harus dikaji dan diperbaiki.

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      2. setuju, perbandingan akan membolehkan kelemahan diperbaiki.

        Padam
    5. Por supuesto, I couldn't agree more. We have to make a comparison to know which side is better.

      BalasPadam
      Balasan
      1. Hopefully the people are able to do so without being influenced by any side of the fence, they need to make their decision based on their own judgement.

        Padam
    6. One thing for sure, no comparison, no growth.

      BalasPadam
    7. Politik memang subjektif.Jadi menerusi perbandingan maka rakyat dapat menilai baik buruk seseorang pemimpin sebelum mengundi mereka.

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      Balasan
      1. Its difficult to tell which is the best party as people have different perspective and expectations, one party may seem good for them but others may not think so. Only during the next general election will we see the people's own choice.

        Padam
      2. rakyat akan sentiasa membuat penilaian..jadi laksanakan lah tugas dengan baik.

        Padam
    8. There are some truth in it. People should be wise to vote in the coming general election.

      Who knows there is a dark horse somewhere?

      BalasPadam
    9. Here's an alternative to the above article:

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      Balasan
      1. a. Figure out how active you think government should be in the lives of everyday people

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      2. b. Consider perhaps that maybe a political "party" isn't for you and you should make up your own mind about the issues instead of electing someone to think on your behalf.

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      3. c. See where your thoughts fit within the political spectrum

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      4. d. Take the Political Compass Test to determine your own political views in relation to others

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      5. Once you have decided where you belong, sign up to vote!

        Padam
    10. Sekiranya anda dapat menerima kekurangan dan kelemahan diri dan sentiasa berusaha untuk memperbaikinya pasti anda boleh melakukannya.

      BalasPadam
      Balasan
      1. jika ada sebarang kelemahan, berusaha untuk perbaikinya..

        Padam
    11. Politicians all over the world, especially countries with democratic institutions and conventions, are the targets of criticisms - some correctly but many are mostly unfair criticisms.

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    12. Through comparison, we are able to make a wise decision.

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    13. Comparing options makes you confident in your choice. Therefore, make a rational comparison and don't let emotional takes over the decision.

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    14. perbandingan perlu bagi kita menilai kelemahan yang ada dan perbaikinya.

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    15. Perbandingan memang mengalak supaya bersikap positif menghadapi masalah. Semoga kerajaan persekutuan juga bersikap demikian dan bukan bersikap puas hati dengan apa yang ada ditangan sekarang.

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    16. Bukan semua orang boleh terima perbandingan. Ada juag menggunakan tektik kotor semata-mata untuk mengekalkan kuasa.

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    17. Terima kritikan yang bertujuan untuk bermaju adalah cara yang berkesan juga.

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    18. Politik sukar untuk dijangka apa akan berlaku. Pelbagai isu dibangkitkan maka sebagai seorang pengundi memainkan peranan mereka untuk menilai sendiri perkara sebegini.

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    19. Setiap masalah yang dibangkitkan bukannya untuk melemahkan kita. Namun memberikan semangat untuk kita menyelesaikannya.

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    20. Mereka yang sudah sampai umur itu sedarlah diri untuk menunaikan tanggungjawab dan menentukan masa depan Negara kita.

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    21. Semakin hari semakin matang rakyat kita. Semakin perlu kita lebih berusaha menyakinkan mereka. Maka sebagai seorang pemimpin perlulah bijak merancang yang terbaik.

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    22. Kita percaya Kerajaan Negeri mahupun Persekutuan akan meneruskan usaha bagi memastikan ekonomi dan kewangan Negara dalam keadaan yang stabil dan terus memberikan kepentingan hak penduduk Sabah.

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    23. buatlah perbandingan, mana yang baik itu yang dipilih atau diambil.

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    24. faktor luaran seperti pengaruh dari pihak yang berkepentingan juga boleh mempengaruhi perbandingan atau keputusan yang bakal dibuat..

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